Benchmark yields push even higher

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news it is the same story continuing, benchmark yields are still pushing higher.</p><p>But first, after the prior week's rather unexpected surge, American <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/09/27/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>mortgage applications fell</strong></a> last week, reverting to the negative trend we have seen since May 2023. The usual culprit was responsible; mortgage interest rates rose again, this time to 7.41% plus points, their highest level since December 2000.</p><p>And staying in the US, <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>new orders for durable goods rose</strong></a> +0.2% in August from July, a minor recovery from the -5.6% slump in July. But the result was better than market forecasts of a -0.5% fall. This leaves overall August orders +3.0% higher than a year ago. Capital goods orders are +2.5% higher than a year ago on the same basis, but they did slip -1% in August from July.</p><p>Meanwhile, American household bank deposits fell for the first time in data going back to 1994, <a href="https://www7.fdic.gov/sod/sodMarketBank.asp?barItem=2" target="_blank"><strong>according to FDIC data</strong></a>. Total deposits slipped -4.8% in the year through June to about US$17.3 tln as customers pulled out money to invest in higher-yielding alternatives. In a country as large as the US, that involves a movement away from banks of -US$900 bln. The main beneficiaries were money-market funds.</p><p>In China, they released <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202309/t20230927_1943230.html" target="_blank"><strong>August industrial profits data</strong></a> yesterday. That shows profits fell by -11.7% from a year earlier