World economy muddles through uninspiring patch

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news of a lot of second-tier data and some of it isn't very good.</p><p>But first, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20230772.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>US jobless claims</strong></a> were in fact little-changed from the prior week, although seasonal adjustment generated a higher number. There are now just under 1.8 mln people on these benefits but that is up from 1.5 mln a year ago. Despite the headline seasonally-adjusted rise, the actual data isn't really showing any increase in new claims.</p><p>But they may be on their way. The <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2023/bos0423.pdf?la=en&hash=98F8049C9DD2BC20CF59D7D385EE1684" target="_blank"><strong>Philly Fed factory survey dived</strong></a> to its lowest level since the pandemic and its eighth consecutive negative reading. This survey covers the Pennsylvania manufacturing rust-belt heartland and is quite a negative signal.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-slid-2-4-in-march" target="_blank"><strong>existing home sales</strong></a> in March dipped from February to an annual rate of 4.44 mln when a 4.5 mln rate was expected.</p><p><a href="http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfbh/20230420.shtml" target="_blank"><strong>Chinese foreign direct investment is falling and quite quickly now</strong></a>. It hardly changed from February to March and is now only +4.9% ahead in nominal terms from a year ago. In February it was +6.1% ahead. In the 30 years of this data, we have never seen such a month where there was virtually none. This is very unusual and no doubt is ringing alarm bells in Beijing.</p><p>Meanwhile, China's central bank kept <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/rmyh/108976/index.html#LPR" target="_blan