What will the US Fed do?

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news we are now on the eve of some large central bank interest rate announcements, and the size of those rises will tell a story about how they see 2023's economic prospects.</p><p>First it will be the US Fed, followed by the ECB. Then smaller central banks like the RBA and the BofE will also chip in.</p><p>Markets are picking more restrained rises even if inflation levels haven't yet pulled back.</p><p>But before that, the next regional factory survey in the US is from <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2023/2301" target="_blank"><strong>Texas</strong></a> where they report flat conditions and weaker new order levels. And that makes it eight months in a row new orders have declined in America's oil patch. This region's results are a drag on the overall results.</p><p>In China, and in a somewhat odd <a href="https://www.cscse.edu.cn/cscse/sy/tzgg/2023012917420185452/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>announcement</strong></a>, Chinese officials are pushing students to enroll quickly at overseas universities, or their course "will no longer be certified". This will involve a rush for visas and flight bookings, and pressure on overseas universities to confirm enrollment. It isn't entirely clear why they are pressing their young students to act so quickly. Their attempt to <a href="https://www.cscse.edu.cn/cscse/sy/tzgg/2023012917442942281/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>explain</strong></a> themselves isn't very helpful.</p><p>Health authorities in China's southwestern province of Sichuan will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/30/sichuan-province-in-china-removes-all-birth-restrictions" target="_blank"><strong>allow unmarried individuals to raise a family</strong></a> and enjoy benefits reserved for married couples, in the latest eff