Wall Street roars after Fed, bond market more cautious

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news hard data on the coming economic retreat is only marginally easier to find. Equities and commodities are up today.</p><p>But US <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20231352.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims</strong></a> rose by +249,000 last week, about the expected seasonal rise. There are now 1.65 mln people on these benefits, the first actual rise since the end of February.</p><p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20231352.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>retail sales unexpectedly rose</strong></a> +0.3% in May from April, following a +0.4% increase in April, and beating forecasts of a -0.1% slip. But these sales are only +2.8% higher than year-ago levels and far less than can be accounted for by inflation.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm" target="_blank"><strong>industrial production</strong></a> however fell -0.2% in May from April when a small +0.1% rise was expected. This is a volume-based measure and year-on-year it is an insignificant +0.2% higher.</p><p>There are a wide variety of experiences at the regional level. The Philly Fed factory survey of that industrial heartland <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2023/bos0623.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>reported</strong></a> a small decline even if some sub indicators turned up. New orders weren't one of them. However the large New York state factory survey was more positive, and they did <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/Empire/empire2023/ESMS_202306.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=BC1FCAA99D19CCF548FDECBF5D234CD6" target="_blank"><strong>reveal</strong></a> a good rise in new orders.</p><p>China released