UST benchmarks push sharply higher

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news that both China and Turkey seem to be wandering off in the belief that economic management doesn't involve behavioural aspects or consequences.</p><p>But first, US <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20222053.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims fell</strong></a> to 178,000 last week taking the total number of people on these benefits to just on 1.2 mln and unchanged from the prior week at a record low. So still no evidence yet of any rising American labour market stress. You may recall that that they peaked in 2020 at over 23 mln.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-decreased-1-5-in-september" target="_blank"><strong>existing home sales fell</strong></a> again in September, and apart from the pandemic, are now running at a ten year low. High mortgage interest rates are getting all the blame. But at the same time, sellers are withdrawing as well, so supply is tight, leaving a competitive market for those who want to buy.</p><p>American may not be buying housing, but they have rediscovered the travel bug. Most large airlines there are reporting record revenues in the September quarter and they are returning to profitability as consumers continue to prioritise spending on travel.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2022/bos1022.pdf?la=en&hash=32B808749376FF5D45F1CC78B518E3E0" target="_blank"><strong>Philadelphia Fed factory survey</strong></a> in the heartland Rust Belt region was weak again in October but no more so than for September. New orders were weak in this region, but hiring was still difficult. And although firms are not optimistic about the next six months, they are still committing increased investment for capital expenditure.