US resilience defies bears so far

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news the US economy is giving continuing signs of resilience even though more analysts think they can see a slowdown coming soon.</p><p>The US labour market just keeps on growing, defying those who thought it would be reversing by now. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank"><strong>They added 428,000 jobs in April</strong></a>, the same as in March and above forecasts of 391,000. It marks a 12th straight month of job gains above 400,000 but easing from a February gain of 714,000 amid an increasingly tight labour market. Employment increased across all sectors, but that still leaves their economy down by -1.2 mln jobs from its pre-pandemic level.</p><p>Pay levels rose, but more modestly this month to be up +5.5% in a year, and far less than inflation's bite.</p><p>New data for American <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm" target="_blank"><strong>consumer credit demand revealed a surge in March</strong></a>, far above what was expected - double in fact. In fact, it was the biggest monthly gain in more than eleven years, driven across the board by sharp rises both revolving credit (like credit cards), and non-revolving credit (like car and personal loans). It isn't getting much attention, but the jump is quite something. February data was revised higher too. Inflation will be a part of it, but improved sentiment is as well.</p><p>Meanwhile, American mortgage rates accelerated their upward climb, <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank"><strong>reaching 5.27%</strong></a> for their benchmark 30yr mortgage and the highest level since August 2009.</p><p>The <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220506/dq220506a-eng.htm?HPA=1" target="_blank"><strong>April jobs report for Canad