US ending 2021 with positive economic momentum

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news American household spending rose in October and savings fell as prices paid by households surged.</p><p>But first, the headline news in the US is that <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20212071.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims</strong></a> there fell to +199,000 last week, the lowest since the start of the pandemic. In fact, they are celebrating that as a 52 year low. But as regular readers here know, we track the actual number which has been running far lower than the reported seasonally adjusted data. Last week, actual claims however actually rose to +259,000 and making 1.814 mln people now on these benefits. At that level, they are in fact back to pre-pandemic levels. They got there a few weeks ago as we reported earlier, but it has taken a while for the seasonally adjusted data to catch up.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>durable goods orders</strong></a> aren't catching up however, falling -4.4% from September but are up +11% from October 2020. They are +3.2% up from October 2019. These are also 'actual' numbers as the seasonally adjusted data seems to sanitise the shifts. New orders for capital goods weren't strong either in October.</p><p>The American <a href="https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>merchandise trade deficit fell</strong></a> sharply in October from September's all-time record. On a year-on-year basis, American exports were +24% higher while their imports were +14% higher.</p><p>New data for <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2021-11-24/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2021" target="_blank"><strong>personal income and personal spending</strong></a> in October saw both rise, but