"Ticking time bomb"?

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news this week, all <a href="https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/123445/david-hargreaves-examines-reserve-banks-forthcoming-ocr-review-saying-all-eyes-will-be"><strong>eyes</strong></a> will be on the Wednesday RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, and especially the regulator's forecasts (even if no change in the OCR is anticipated).</p><p>Elsewhere, potential market moving data might come from the US Fed's release of the minutes of is July meeting, or US retail sales, or US industrial production data updates.</p><p>Or market movers might come from Japanese growth and CPI data, or Canadian CPI data, or EU GDP and CPI data. Who knows?</p><p>Of more likely from Chinese retail sales of industrial production data. They could be weak. Investors are watching what is unfolding in their economy with growing alarm. Maybe it isn't a "<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-calls-china-ticking-time-bomb-economic-problems-rcna99397" target="_blank"><strong>ticking time bomb</strong></a>" yet but stresses are building and not being dealt with. An economically struggling one-man-ruled situation is also politically risky because <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-steeling-itself-chinese-drills-over-vps-us-visit-2023-08-11/" target="_blank"><strong>a military adventure</strong></a> might seem like a distraction worth trying.</p><p><a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5021118/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>China's banks lent ¥346 bln in new yuan loans in July</strong></a>, the least since November 2009 and well below analyst expectations of ¥800 bln. In June this new loan value was ¥3.05 tln; a year ago it was ¥679 bln so by every measure the July level is very low. If clients now won't take on more debt, it is something of a watershed mom