The Superforecasters: With Guests Leon Panetta, Peter Bergen & Barbara Mellers

<p>There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.</p><p>In this episode of <i>Choiceology with </i><a href="http://www.katherinemilkman.com/"><i>Katy Milkman</i></a>, we look at what makes some people “superforecasters.” </p><p>In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.</p><p>We will hear this story from two perspectives. </p><p><a href="https://peterbergen.com/">Peter Bergen</a> is a national security commentator and author of the book <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Rise-and-Fall-of-Osama-bin-Laden/Peter-L-Bergen/9781982170530"><i>The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden</i></a>. He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.</p><p>Former CIA director <a href="https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/602799/">Leon Panetta</a> led the United States government’s hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.</p><p>Next, Katy speaks with <a href="https://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/people/barbara-mellers">Barbara Mellers</a> about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information. </p><p>You can read more in the paper titled "<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691615577794">Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Pr