The pall of uncertainty lingers

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news a pall of uncertainty is still hanging over investment and financial markets, uncertainty about how the drive to quell inflation will turn out for asset prices.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20220943.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims rose</strong></a> slightly last week but remained below the 200,000 level in 'actual' terms, and the total number of people on these claims dipped below 1.3 mln and another new record low.</p><p>American <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-retract-2-4-in-april" target="_blank"><strong>existing home sales fell</strong></a> in April, and fell more than expected and the third retreat in a row. They are now down almost -6% from the same month a year ago, and the inventory of unsold houses is rising even if it is at historically low levels. </p><p>US mortgage rates <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank"><strong>dipped unexpectedly</strong></a> last week.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2022/bos0522.pdf?la=en&hash=5B008BCC867ACE5BBE3E275F11200321" target="_blank"><strong>Philly Fed factory survey</strong></a> is still expanding, but at a sharply reduced rate. However new orders and shipments rose. But employment decreased, and the price indexes remained elevated although edged down. Their looking-ahead indexes remained positive but reflect more muted optimism for growth over the next six months.</p><p>Japan's <a href="https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2022/202204ce.xml" target="_blank"><strong>exports rose strongly</strong></a> again in April, the second highest level ever after the record-breaking March result. But the rise actually disappointed analysts. And it