The Intermission is Over

<p>Bitcoin Market Update | Week 32 - August 11, 2021</p><p>The Bitcoin market has shown continued strength over the past week in several on-chain and technical indicators. This leads me to believe we will continue to see a bullish advance into the previously set ATH of 65K within a few weeks. Although I'm typically weary of predicting prices above those once established, the data suggests prices above $100K later in this market cycle, barring any unknown major news or changes to the global macroeconomic environment.</p><p> Here are this week's curated data points:</p><ul> <li>The 200-day SMA has been breached and has been holding above pretty consistently.</li> <li>Bitcoins are selling into demand, not weakness.</li> <li>Those hoping for Bitcoin below 30K are now buying Bitcoin above 40K.</li> <li>Exchange balances are at their lowest levels, not previously seen since the May 19 liquidation event, indicating we're in the early stages of a supply crunch.</li> </ul><p><strong>The 200-day Moving Average (MA)</strong></p><p> Those who have followed these updates know that I'm not a massive fan of Technical Analysis (TA) for analyzing Bitcoin on timeframes longer than a few days. However, TA, used effectively, may provide some value in the stock markets but only because stock markets are inherently opaque.</p><p> I prefer analyzing on-chain data, but some TA metrics are helpful simply because we know that others, particularly technical traders, use TA and make investment decisions on the insights they reveal.</p><p> Technical traders use moving averages to identify changes in market trends; the most popular moving averages are the 50, 100, and 200-day averages - these are three lines on a price chart showing the average price over 50, 100, and 200 days.</p><p>Earlier this week, Bitcoin surpassed the 200 Day MA at $45,200 and has continued to sustain above this level since. I should note that every mid-cycle correction in Bitcoin's history has breached the 200 Day MA on the way down. The current mid-cycle corr