Strength in some key labour markets holds things together

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news economic weaknesses except in some key labour markets.</p><p>We follow <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20222194.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>American jobless claims</strong></a>, looking for early signs of labour market stress. But despite other weakish economic signals, this key sector isn't showing that yet. There were just 199,600 new claims last week, a very low level. There are now 1.237 mln people on these benefits, also historically low.</p><p>But there were weak signs continuing from their housing markets. <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>New housing starts</strong></a> slipped again last month to be -8.8% lower than year-ago levels. Building consent levels -10% lower on that basis. But it is worth noting that both are still above pre-pandemic levels. And overall these October falls were less than was expected.</p><p>Also weak were the survey results from factories in the Philadelphia Fed region, primarily in Pennsylvania where a grim partisan election took place recently. It swung strongly to the Democrats, and that was despite their factories giving this survey <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2022-11" target="_blank"><strong>a downbeat assessment</strong></a>, one taken right as votes were counted or immediately after.</p><p>But not quite so downbeat were factories in the <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/Manufacturing/documents/9249/Manufacturing-Survey-Nov-2022.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Kansas City Fed survey</strong></a>. Here earlier declines in metrics slowed noticeably.</p><p>Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed boss has <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2022/11/17/bullard-presents