Stagflation: be alert, not alarmed - EP143

<p>The World Bank has downgraded its global economic growth forecast and has warned of the rising risk of stagflation. What is stagflation and how likely is it? And a related question: what is a wage-price spiral and how likely is it? Show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Arturo Espinoza discuss how the current global situation is similar and dissimilar to the 1970s, with a consideration of recent perspectives from the World Bank and BIS.  </p><h3>Links relevant to the conversation</h3><p><a href="https://economicsexplored.com/2022/06/10/is-a-us-recession-imminent-w-michael-knox-chief-economist-morgans-financial-ep142/">Is a US recession imminent? w/ Michael Knox, Chief Economist, Morgans Financial – EP142 – Economics Explored</a> (Previous episode with Michael Knox)</p><p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/jobs-report-may-2022-.html">Jobs report May 2022: Payrolls rose 390,000 in May, better than expected as companies keep hiring</a></p><p><a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=stagflation&geo=US">https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=stagflation&geo=US</a> (Google Trends for stagflation)</p><p><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/734cb1ff-9dc1-4a67-a567-c2f681f18a77">The Fed must act now to ward off the threat of stagflation | Financial Times</a></p><p><a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull53.htm">Are major advanced economies on the verge of a wage-price spiral?</a> (BIS Bulletin 53)</p><p><a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull54.htm">Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation</a> (BIS Bulletin 54)</p><p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KQzDcE0k0NhHp3tXK8gdTzAllssFP8e3/view?usp=sharing">Robert Heller’s paper on International Reserves and Global Inflation</a> (from p. 28)</p><p><a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/06/07/stagflation-risk-rises-amid-sharp-slowdown-in-growth-energy-markets">Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth</a> (World Bank report) </p><p><a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/stagflation-danger-sees-worl