Social stresses rise from China's slowdown

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news the social consequences of the Chinese economic slowdown are just not going away.</p><p>But first, there were a flurry of factory PMIs released over the weekend confirming <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f5128d2008a2467dad33379d8fcaab52" target="_blank"><strong>a global manufacturing downturn</strong></a> remains, even it is minor.</p><p>But not minor is the widely-watched US <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/" target="_blank"><strong>ISM version</strong></a> as that reports a noticeable shrinkage across the board. The internationally benchmarked <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ab876d10adfb44c38d40ce700488ac3c" target="_blank"><strong>S&PGlobal (ex-Markit) version</strong></a> however records barely a drop. But it does confirm lower demand.</p><p>In a Friday <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231201a.htm" target="_blank"><strong>speech</strong></a>, Fed boss Powell signaled that they are likely done raising rates, but his comments were laced with caution.</p><p><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231201/dq231201a-eng.htm?HPA=1" target="_blank"><strong>Canada's labour force grew</strong></a> at a faster pace than expected in November, faster than the good +24,900 increase in employment. Payrolls swelled much more, but the number of self-employed fell rather sharply. That meant that their jobless rate inched up to 5.8%. This wasn't unexpected.</p><p>In China the <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b6186298860d46a6b0cf2ed4fbec8f20" target="_blank"><strong>Caixin factory PMI</strong></a> diverged from the official NBS version again, and again was more posi