Risk back on, but OECD doesn't share the optimism

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news the OECD says we may be heading for a war-induced global slowdown (rather than a war-induced global spending spree). But financial markets have turned risk-on now they know where the US Fed is headed.</p><p>But first, last week's initial <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20220486.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims data</strong></a> in the US came in lower than expected at 203,000 and there are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits a multi-generational (52 year) low.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm" target="_blank"><strong>industrial production data</strong></a> for February came in exactly as expected with a modest rise. But it was held back by mining data. The factory production data was really rather strong, especially for business equipment. Construction data helped too.</p><p>Also moving up is the <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2022/bos0322.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>factory survey responses</strong></a> from the Philly Fed's industrial heartland region. It is expanding in March with new orders and production higher, but cost increases became more widespread, they say.</p><p>That bullishness was also reflected in their <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>new housing starts data</strong></a> for February, which came in way above expectations. But there was a fall in their new building permits which at first blush seems counterintuitive until you realise it was only slightly off a record high.</p><p>Elsewhere there have been a set of central bank rate echoes of yesterday's Fed move. <a href="https://www.hkma.gov.hk/eng/news-and-media/press-releases/2022/03/202203