Recession Risk Is Still Present -- James Locke #5865

<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>PMI Report (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index</strong>)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Past few months we have seen the numbers in line or under expectations<br /> Last week it was above for the first time since April<br /> Another number will be reported tomorrow<br /> ALL values are still negative, even if they are not as negative as initially thought.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Everyone is Bullish and it is scary!</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson finally capitulated and apologized for getting the market wrong the last nine months. (He is a huge bear mkt guy) from 3500-4400</p> <p class="MsoNormal">When the Street’s most bearish strategist turns bullish, does that mean the market is due for a correction? YES!</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Time to get short.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Last year people were adding on to TBill positions.<br /> This Year, everyone YOLOed into tech stock and out of TBills<br /> Right on market highs.<br /> You could not have scripted this any better.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Between strategists apologizing and people YOLOing into tech stocks, I think it’s time to book whatever gains we have and move to the sidelines.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Lets put a baseline correction of 10-12% And it could get worse.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">All I know is that all the conditions are in place for a correction of some magnitude. And it will take a lot of people by surprise, as these things usually do.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Word of advice: sell when you can, not when you have to.<br /> Never confuse brains with a bull market. When we start to hear of plumbers quitting their jobs and getting into day trading… <em>again</em>. They made a lot of money off TSLA and think that is a repeatable strategy. Here we go again.  We all remember that in the 90s, but I guess not everyone does.</p> <p>We can talk about how interest rates are