Question marks rise everywhere, all at once

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news financial markets are all awaiting the New Zealand Q3-2022 inflation data, due out at 10:45am NZT today. This will set the scene for where fixed home loan rates are headed, and upcoming policy move by the RBNZ.</p><p>But first, overnight the <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2022/esms_2022_10.pdf?la=en" target="_blank"><strong>factory survey</strong></a> in the State of New York showed business activity declined "modestly" in October. New orders, unfilled orders, and shipments were all little changed from last month. Delivery times held steady, and inventories inched higher. Their labour market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and the average workweek. Input price increases picked up, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. Looking ahead, firms there do not expect business conditions to improve over the next six months.</p><p><a href="https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/september-2022" target="_blank"><strong>Freight shipments across the whole of the US</strong></a> rose +4.8% in September from a year ago but fell -2.9% from August. Having said that, road freight activity is still quite high in the US, certainly higher than pre-pandemic levels. This data supports the contention that the general US economy is expanding with building activity. After a volatile recovery phase following the pandemic shock, growth metrics are now starting to settle down. The Atlanta Fed's <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" target="_blank"><strong>GDP Now tracker</strong></a> has their Q3 expansion at +2.8%. More traditional models have it lower at half that level. US Q3 data will be released on October 28, NZT, a week from Friday.</p><p>China is in full hag