Power stress risks rise in Australia

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news there are worries the Aussie energy transition is falling short and they could face tough choices as early as this summer.</p><p>But first, US <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/08/30/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>mortgage applications</strong></a> rose +2.3% last week from the prior week and mortgage interest rates held steady at a very high 7.31% plus points. It was their first rise in six weeks and doesn't really interrupt the lower track this market has been on.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-elevated-0-9-in-july-marking-second-consecutive-monthly-increase" target="_blank"><strong>pending home sales</strong></a> also ticked a minor +0.9% higher in July from June (in just a 'noisy' change) to be -14% lower than a year ago.</p><p>The pre-cursor report to the Saturday (NZT) non-farm payrolls report, <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/March/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-March2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>the ADP employment report</strong></a>, revealed a +177,000 jobs gain by private employers for August. This was slightly less than the +195,000 expected. They said this level is consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic. After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, they are moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede. +170,000 more jobs are expected for the non-farm payrolls report.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2023-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits" target="_blank"><strong>second estimate of US Q2-2023 economic growth</strong></a> was market do