Opaque China has everyone guessing

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news investor fascination with the possibility China may back off its strict lockdown regime doesn't seem to be reciprocated by official announcements yet.</p><p>In China, <a href="http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/xwfb34/302425/4668228/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>exports fell in October</strong></a>, their first retreat since May 2020, and prior to that their January 2019. The fall wasn't large (-0.3%) but over the past two years it is well lower than the prior low of a +3.5% year-on-year rise.</p><p>China's October 2022 trade surplus was lower too at +US$85 bln, and well lower than the +US$96 bln expected. Imports fell faster than exports but these are actually little-changed in the past seven of eight months.</p><p>Apple has <a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2022/11/update-on-supply-of-iphone-14-pro-and-iphone-14-pro-max/" target="_blank"><strong>warned</strong></a> it will ship fewer premium iPhones and customers will face longer waits for products after strict COVID-19 curbs disrupted production at a key factory in Zhengzhou, China, which is operating at "significantly" lower capacity as pandemic-related restrictions affected assembly of the premium iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max. Key supplier Foxconn has had to run the facility under tighter restrictions, including daily testing and limitations on staff movements.</p><p>Analysts had expected <a href="https://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2022/0207/20625.html" target="_blank"><strong>China's foreign currency reserves</strong></a> to dip marginally in October by about -US$18 bln. But in fact they rose marginally by +US$23 bln to US$3.05 tln.</p><p>Those rumours continue to swirl about a coming easing of pandemic controls. It is 'seducing investors'. But news of a wider spread of infection, especially in the Guangdong regi