Odds of a global recession reduce

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news investor inflation expectations are the key uncertainty this week.</p><p>Despite China being on holiday, it will be a busy data week ahead. For us it will be highlighted with the Wednesday release of our Q4-2022 inflation data. That will be quickly followed by the same data from Australia. Both have the potential to be market-moving. Markets expect the NZ CPI rate to come in at 7.1% and little changed from the September 7.2%, and for Australia at 7.5% and up from the prior 7.3%. The week will end with the US releasing its first estimate of 2022-Q4 GDP growth on Friday, and a +2.6% rate is expected. At the same time a +2.5% rise durable goods orders is expected. Before all that flash PMI data for January for the US, Japan, Europe and Australia will be released. We will also be following the Canadian policy rate decision on Thursday (+25 bps expected to 4.50%).</p><p>Of course, it is a full week official holiday in China, and Taiwan and Singapore are other countries taking a New Year holiday today at least. Hong Kong's financial market will be closed until Thursday this week, unlike Shanghai which doesn't reopen until Monday, January 30.</p><p>The Chinese central bank reviewed its loan benchmarks late Friday and left them <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/rmyh/108976/index.html#LPR" target="_blank"><strong>unchanged</strong></a>. This wasn't a surprise and is the fifth straight month they have been untouched. </p><p>The gigantic <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_New_Year" target="_blank"><strong>Chinese New Year</strong></a> (Year of the Rabbit) travel event has started, which will see more than 900 mln people move around internally and externally, probably extending Covid to every corner of their country. Some 2.1 bln trips are expected to take place during the 4