No last-minute surprises for 2022

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the holiday edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news that the year is ending on some quiet notes. The year's crescendos have all happened, as we seem to look forward to a tame 2023. A soft landing is the most likely.</p><p>Many global economic indicators point to slower growth or minor contraction as central banks continue to raise policy interest rates in the battle against inflation. Growth projections are being trimmed as challenges grow, including policy tightening, inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and ongoing disruptions related to the pandemic. Global GDP growth will be about +3.2% in 2022 and slow to +2.7% in 2023 according to the IMF. For the major economies in 2023, they say China will recover with +4.4% growth while Germany will contract -0.3%. The US economy is expected to expand by +1% in 2023. Australia can look forward to +1.3% and New Zealand also +1.% they say. That is all consistent with a soft landing while the central banks tackle inflation.</p><p>Meanwhile, American <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20222372.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims rose</strong></a> last week to +271,000 which was about the expected seasonal rise. Despite that, they remain near historic lows. There are now a bit less than +1.6 mln people of these benefits.</p><p>And after about two months of easing mortgage interest rates, these <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank"><strong>turned higher last week</strong></a> for American borrowers. They end the year at almost double the APR rate than where they started.</p><p>Italy, Taiwan, Japan, India and Malaysia have all now joined the US is requiring clear PCR tests from travelers arriving from China. But the EU, and notably France and Germany, say the situation does not yet warrant imposing such a restriction. Aust