Miners looking at 10 year commodity super-cycle

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news commodity prices are on the rise again, and this may be a decade long commodity super-cycle if you believe the big miners.</p><p>First up today, the <a href="https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/" target="_blank"><strong>overnight dairy auction</strong></a> saw prices rise +4.2% in US dollar terms and up +4.0% in NZ dollar terms. It is the third very good result in a row and prices have now risen +14% since the start of 2022. The dominant WMP price is up +4.2% and the SMP price is up +6.0%. We also need to give a shout out to the butter price, up +5.1% to reach more than NZ$10,000/tonne for the first time ever.</p><p>The farm gate payout price forecasts won't be hurt by this and may get a late season burst, welcomed because milk volumes are under pressure. We are on the downside of this dairy season with the milk peak well passed, so more attention will now be on the next season forecasts. With global foodservice markets ramping up again, things look bright on that front.</p><p>In the US, Wall Street is in a hesitant rally on <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/markets-rise-report-partial-russian-pullback-ukraine-border-2022-02-15/" target="_blank"><strong>mixed signs</strong></a> the Ukraine-Russia tensions may be easing. Or it might be a head-fake by Russia.</p><p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/redbook-index" target="_blank"><strong>US retail sales are rising</strong></a>, and last week the pace picked back up to be +15.4% above the same level a year ago, and clearly there are gains here far above inflation.</p><p><a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm" target="_blank"><strong>US producer prices</strong></a> are still rising and at a very elevated rate, up +9.7% from a year ago in January and ab