Markets look over their shoulders

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news there are growing concerns about the global growth trajectory - and wobbles in the US. Both equity and bond markets are picking up on the vibe.</p><p>American retail sales softened last week, as monitored by <a href="http://www.redbookresearch.com/" target="_blank"><strong>the Redbook survey</strong></a>, a noticeable shift lower than the week before.</p><p>And US <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>new home sales</strong></a> took an unexpected fall in March, down -12% below year-ago levels and a rather sharp fall-away from February levels. Higher mortgage costs are probably biting this corner of their real estate markets rather hard now.</p><p>After they fell in February, <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>US durable goods orders</strong></a> were expected to rise in March, and they did. But not by as much as was expected. The miss however is more to do with timing of "transportation" orders (read aircraft) which can be lumpy. Other than that, March durable goods orders actually rose more than expected and are up +9.9% from the same month a year ago. Orders for capital goods are up more than +10%.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/2022/pdf/mfg_04_26_22.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Richmond Fed factory survey</strong></a> has held its level in April, but the <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2022/2204.aspx" target="_blank"><strong>Dallas Fed services sector survey</strong></a> has weakened slightly.</p><p>American <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence" target="_blank"><strong>consumers however re