Making Smart Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts with Annie Duke

In this episode we discuss how to make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty. We look at “the worst call in the history of football,” discuss examples from life, business and even high stakes poker to understand how to make the best possible decisions in a a world filled with unknowns. What exactly is a good decision? Is that different than a good outcome? We look at this key question - and uncover the wisdom hidden in the reality that these two things might be completely different. All this and more with our guest Annie Duke. Annie is a professional decision strategists and former professional poker player. She has leveraged her expertise in the science of smart decision making throughout her life and for two decades was one of the top poker players in the world. She is the author of the book Thinking In Bets: Making Smart Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts and after being granted the National Science Foundation Fellowship, studied Cognitive Psychology at The University of Pennsylvania.How do we get create lessons from our experiences?How do we sort out the noise in the gap between decision quality and outcome quality?In poker (like life) you can make really good decision and have a really bad outcome - but that doesn’t mean that you made a bad decisionThis fuzzy relationship between decision making and outcomes can be very problematic for people “Resulting”- tying the quality of the outcome too tightly to the quality of decisionsAn unlucky / bad outcome is not the same as a bad decisionRed lights and green lights - and how they can shine a light on hidden risks to decision-makingThe only thing that matters is not the result - but the process  of making decisions - because that is all we can controlIn our own lives we constantly lurch into over-reactions when we focus only on results and not on our decision-making qualityStrategy #1: Approach the world through the frame of decisions as betsWhy you should ask “Wanna Bet?” to get more clarity about a situationThere are 2 major sources