Major global economic stress from war avoided - so far

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news that so far the international economic implications of the eastern European war remain relatively limited given what is going on.</p><p>In Ukraine, the northern and eastern cities are still holding in truly heroic circumstances despite very heavy bombardment, Russian speaking Kharkiv in particular, but also in the Donbas region. However Russian forces are making '<a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/zdpxokdxzvx/" target="_blank"><strong>progress</strong></a>' with their invasion in the south.</p><p>In the US, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20220374.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims fell</strong></a> to 194,700, a larger decrease than was expected. There are now 1.86 mln people on these benefits, the lowest number in more than 50 years. </p><p><a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/feb-22-job-cuts-hiring-explodes-as-job-cuts-fall/" target="_blank"><strong>Job cut data</strong></a> is now at its lowest level since that data was collected in 1993.</p><p>However, the <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/february/" target="_blank"><strong>ISM services PMI</strong></a> for the US fell for a third month to 56.5 in February from 59.9 in January, below market forecasts of 61. The reading pointed to the slowest growth in the services sector in a year, although still a good expansion and above their long-run average. The internationally-benchmarked <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b1c01498302642fb994a010cf65b57d3" target="_blank"><strong>Markit services PMI</strong></a> for the US recorded a bounce-back, but to the same level as the ISM one.</p><p>In their manufacturing sector, the <a href="https://www.ce