Luck vs the Definite Future [Peter Thiel]

<p>Audio source: <a href="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/the-intellectual/peter-thiel-different-t5016qW_GCo/#1">https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/the-intellectual/peter-thiel-different-t5016qW_GCo/#1</a></p><p><strong>Transcript<br></strong><br></p><p>[00:00:00] <strong>swyx: </strong>[00:00:00] I always enjoy Peter Thiel's non-consensus takes on everything. And in the age where we have everyone thinking in probabilities,  Annie Duke is making books where it's talking about thinking in bets. </p><p>[00:00:10] Peter Thiel was making a very strong argument for investing in founders who just have a strong belief in the definite future of the world. These are the people that are likely to stay with it and make for the big bets rather than the professional CEOs. So here's a clip:</p><p>[00:00:25] <strong>Peter Thiel: </strong>[00:00:25] I think the internal story in these businesses is one that's strikingly, not one about, Oh, we're going to take crazy risks or anything like this. It's one where it's destined to succeed. It's going to happen. As a venture capitalist, you always want to invest in the ones where they speak indefinite, future tense. Something you have to sometimes be careful. They're not totally crazy people but  that's the sort of person you want to invest in.</p><p>[00:00:48] And you do not want to invest in people  who are talking too much about probabilities or risks or things like that. Because my experience has been that the people who think they're involved in some sort of lottery ticket, like dynamic are already setting themselves up to somehow get the probabilities wrong and invariably lose.</p><p>[00:01:06] And there's a similar version of this that I experienced as an investor. There's always this very tricky question of what the role of luck and chance is in these things working. And there's there certainly is this external.</p><p>[00:01:16]Truth perspective that there is a certain amount of luck that's built into the nature of the universe. And you try to model it. You try