Less fear, less clarity

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news we are ending the year with some very mixed signals, and it isn't clear one way or the other whether the widely-expected recession will actually eventuate in 2023. <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed" target="_blank"><strong>Markets are no longer in 'fear' mode</strong></a>.</p><p>However, in China the pressure on property developers is never-ending. Now, to bail them out, Beijing has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-top-banks-issue-offshore-loans-help-developers-repay-debt-sources-2022-12-02/" target="_blank"><strong>ordered</strong></a> its top four state-owned banks to issue offshore loans to help developers repay overseas debt. And to encourage buyers to return, mortgage interest rates for first home loans have been <a href="https://www.chinabankingnews.com/2022/12/01/first-home-loan-rates-in-china-fall-140bp-in-2022/" target="_blank"><strong>dropped</strong></a> by over one percentage point since the start of 2022. As of the end of November, the average first home loan rate in China stood at 4.17%.</p><p>In Japan, births among Japanese nationals totalled 798,500, according to official data for 2022, and down from <a href="https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/database/db-hw/populate/dl/E01.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>+811,000</strong></a> in the prior year. This is the first time the 12-month figure has dipped below 800,000 births. That is far below replacement levels and the Japanese population is shrinking fast now. Earlier, the Japanese population was forecast to shrink to less than 100 million people in 2053, but now there is a strong likelihood the milestone will be reached much sooner. Of course, this isn't just a Japanese 'problem'. It is equally true for South Korea, Italy and China</p><p>In Europe, <a href="https://www.intere