Jet fuel cost surges

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we start with news international travel may be back on the agenda for many, but it is likely to cost a lot more post-pandemic.</p><p>But first, US <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20230183.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims</strong></a> came in virtually unchanged last week from the week before. That remains a low level. There are now 1.916 mln people on these benefits. Still this leading indicator isn't yet showing labour market stress rising.</p><p>But those monitoring <a href="https://omscgcinc.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/The-Challenger-Report-January23.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>major layoffs</strong></a> are finding more now. US-based employers announced 102,943 cuts in January, and far higher than the 19,100 cuts in January 2022. As spectacular as these changes are, you need to keep in mind the US workforce is 156 mln, so this new level is just 0.07% of that.</p><p>American <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm" target="_blank"><strong>labour productivity</strong></a> rose in the December quarter and labour costs rose at a much slower pace than anticipated, only at a +4% annual rate. Financial markets kicked along on this news.</p><p>And US <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>factory orders</strong></a> bounced back to growth in December from their big and unexpected November fall, but not by as much as expected.</p><p>Going the other way, Canadian <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230202/dq230202a-eng.htm?HPA=1" target="_blank"><strong>building consents</strong></a> fell more than expected in December after an unexpectedly large rise in December.</p><p>In what might be seen as an act of desperation as Beijing's