It's not going to be transitory

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news it is all about consumer inflation, and the market reactions that followed.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm" target="_blank"><strong>US CPI</strong></a> came in way above its expected high level. It was running at 5.4% in September and was expected to rise to 5.8% in October. But the actual October rise was by 6.2%. Even their 'core inflation' data pushed on up sharply higher than expected from 4.0% in September to 4.6% in October. Their headline inflation rate is the highest in more than 30 years; their core inflation rate is the same.</p><p>The largest increases in this data are for energy-related costs (+30%), but nearly everything else rose sharply as well like food (+5.3%) and apparel (+4.3%). The only major category holding the line has been medical and healthcare costs.</p><p>Tomorrow is Veterans Day in the US, a Federal holiday, so we got some data usually due out on their Thursday's a day earlier. And that includes their <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20212008.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>weekly jobless claims data</strong></a> update. Another +254,000 people signed up for these benefits last week and a small increase from the previous week. There are now 1.9 mln people on these programs and basically back to their pre-pandemic level.</p><p><a href="https://www.jmtba.or.jp/wp-content/uploads/sokuhou2110dkjc.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Japanese machine tool orders</strong></a> impressed yet again, up more than +80% above year ago levels and +70% higher than <a href="https://www.jmtba.or.jp/english/wp-content/uploads/JMTBA-NOTES-2019-11.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>October 2019 levels</strong></a>. Even if there are inflationary aspects to discount, these clearly indicate company boardro