Is the Fed in a Trap? (9/28/23)

(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession. GDP revisions are rear-view data: Is the Fed in a trap? 7% interest rates are ludicrous; putting "crisis" into perspective. Why things WERE different in 1995: The Yield Curve was not inverted, and did not invert until 1998. Market commentary: Tough week for markets with few drivers and "programmic" selling. Markets are in position to boom ahead of weaker performance next year. Price drives performance and narrative; what's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Group think vs group stink. SEG-1: What's Driving the Markets Now SEG-2: Revising GDP: Is the Fed in a Trap? SEG-3: Why Things WERE Different in 1995 SEG-4: Price Drives the Narrative: What's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s  -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We Heading for 7% Interest?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "A Crisis Is Coming: Who Is Swimming Naked?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crisis-is-coming-who-is-swimming-naked/ "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-sho