How to be a Superforecaster w/ Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment - EP176

<p>What are the characteristics of superforecasters? How can a superforecasting team be developed? Hear from Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment, a leading global forecasting business based in NYC. Accurate forecasts from Good Judgment superforecasters have included the scale of the pandemic. In early 2020, Good Judgment superforecasters estimated the United States would have over 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 with 99 percent certainty, an estimate that was considered by many as excessive at the time. Warren gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes some valuable tips on how to become a superforecaster. </p><p>Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at <a href="mailto:contact@economicsexplored.com">contact@economicsexplored.com</a> or sending a voice message via <a href="https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored">https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored</a>. </p><h3>What’s covered in EP176</h3><ul><li>The Good Judgment forecasting business [2:41]</li><li>What are the characteristics of superforecasters? [6:47]</li><li>How to identify someone who is good at pattern recognition? Raven’s matrices [9:24]</li><li>Link between subject matter expertise and forecasting ability [10:40]</li><li>What are some of the techniques that are used to help super forecasters rid themselves of prejudice and bias? [12:57]</li><li>How large does a super forecasting group need to be to be successful? [20:35]</li><li>Tips for being a super forecaster [25:59]</li><li>Using the percentages to retrospectively see how you’ve gone [27:56]</li><li>Bayes’ Theorem [31:41]</li><li>The importance of being open to a range of different views [42:47]</li></ul><h3>About this episode’s guest: Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment</h3><p>Warren Hatch is Good Judgment’s second CEO, succeeding co-founder Terry Murray. </p><p>Before joining Good Judgment, Hatch was a partner at McAlinden Research, where he identified thematic investment opportunities in global markets for institutional investor clients.