How much to change a job?

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news that all the 'rich men north of Richmond' have now decamped to Jackson Hole WO, and are awaiting Fed boss Powell's speech.</p><p>So today we are left with the granular details of the American economy - which is actually doing remarkably well for the non-rich men south of Richmond (even if they can't actually acknowledge it).</p><p>New jobless claims last week fell to under +200,000 which is a low benchmark and confirming their labour market is in pink health still. There are now still 'only' 1.8 mln people on these benefits, an unusually low level even if has become normalised over the past two years.</p><p>American <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>durable goods orders</strong></a> in July recorded a rather sharp -5.2% decrease following a +4.4% rise in June. But the July drop is all about the timing of large aircraft orders. Excluding those, durable goods orders rose in July. And overall they are +3.3% higher than year-ago levels. Orders for capital goods are +4.2% higher than a year ago. None of this suggests rust-belt activity is under any special pressure.</p><p>And the Chicago Fed's more broad <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data" target="_blank"><strong>national activity index</strong></a> pointed to a pickup in economic activity in July, again belying the doomsters.</p><p>And this in turn is confirmed by the <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/Manufacturing/documents/9736/2023August24.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Kansas City Fed factory survey</strong></a> which reported a sharp recovery in their key measures. And firms surveyed indicated that they expected a further pickup in the months ahead, so hiring remained positive.</p><p>The rich men north of Richmond seem to b