Holden Karnofsky - Transformative AI & Most Important Century

<p>Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.openphilanthropy.org/">Open Philanthropy</a> and co-founder of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.givewell.org/">GiveWell</a>. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cold-takes.com/">Cold Takes</a>.</p><p>We discuss:</p><p>* Are we living in the most important century?</p><p>* Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016?</p><p>* How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics?</p><p>Highly recommend!</p><p>Watch on <a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/UckqpcOu5SY">YouTube</a>. Listen on <a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/holden-karnofsky-transformative-ai-most-important-century/id1516093381?i=1000592080817">Apple Podcasts</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://spoti.fi/3Qi11SY">Spotify</a>, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/holden-karnofsky">here</a>.</p><p><strong>Timestamps</strong></p><p>(0:00:00) - Intro</p><p>(0:00:58) - The Most Important Century</p><p>(0:06:44) - The Weirdness of Our Time</p><p><strong>(</strong>0:21:20) - The Industrial Revolution </p><p>(0:35:40) - AI Success Scenario</p><p>(0:52:36) - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks</p><p>(1:00:14) - Lock-in & Weak Points</p><p>(1:06:04) - Predicting the Future</p><p>(1:20:40) - Choosing Which Problem To Solve</p><p>(1:26:56) - $30M OpenAI Investment</p><p>(1:30:22) - Future Proof Ethics</p><p>(1:37:28) - Integrity vs Utilitarianism</p><p>(1:40:46) - Bayesian Mindset & Governance</p><p>(1:46:56) - Career Advice</p><p><strong>Transcript</strong></p><p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel</strong>  All right, today I have the pleasure of speaking with Holden Karnofsky who is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy. In my opinion, Holden is one of the most interesting intellectuals alive. Holden, welcome to the Lunar Society. </p><p><strong>Holden Karnofsky </strong></p><p>