Global trade recovery underway

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news there does seem to be an export-led trade recovery underway for some key Western economies, one that isn't attracting much attention from markets so far.</p><p>But first we should report that initial <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20221458.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>American jobless claims rose</strong></a> a very minor +12,000 last week from the week before. There are now 1.378 mln people on these benefits, and still near all-time record lows.</p><p>But <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-surge-in-june-2022-up-57-from-may-59-from-june-2021-highest-quarterly-total-since-q1-2021/" target="_blank"><strong>reports</strong></a> of job cuts are rising even if they are still at low levels.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>US trade deficit</strong></a> of both goods and services remained at an historically high level even if it did fall in May from April. The reduction was due to stronger exports and restrained imports although both hit monthly record high levels. Their deficit with China fell. It seems that world trade is in good heart. And as we have noted before, their annual trade deficit is 'only' -4% of US economic activity, so isn't a heavy load for them especially when it is paid for by their domestic currency.</p><p>Supporting that is international <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis---may-2022/" target="_blank"><strong>air cargo data</strong></a> out for May, showing North America leading this recovery, and by a substantial margin.</p><p><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic" target="_blank"><strong>Bulk cargo shipping rates</