Global 'soft landing' more likely

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news a global soft landing seems much more likely now, despite China's travails.</p><p>The actual number of Americans on <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20232163.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless benefits</strong></a> was just 1.58 mln and an eight month low, and the number of new filings were 173,000 last week and close to a seven month low. None of this very current data suggests labour market stress is about to hit them.</p><p>And the September <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/sept-2023-job-cuts-fall-from-august-up-58-over-same-month-last-year-q3-cuts-up-92-from-q3-2022/" target="_blank"><strong>Challenger job cut report</strong></a> was low too, and the recent trend shows the earlier rises seem to have run out of steam.</p><p>So perhaps estimates for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report of jobs growth of +170,000 has upside risks attached.</p><p>Meanwhile, the US <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade" target="_blank"><strong>trade deficit narrowed</strong></a> to -US$58 bln in August, its lowest since September 2020. Both goods and services exports rose from July, goods imports fell from the prior month.</p><p>Canada also <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231005/dq231005a-eng.htm?HPA=1" target="_blank"><strong>reported</strong></a> an improved trade balance, a rare August surplus. Their exports also rose.and by +5.7%.</p><p>And Canada's closely-watched local <a href="https://iveypmi.uwo.ca/" target="_blank"><strong>Ivey PMI</strong></a> slipped slightly but far less than expected, and remains in a good expansion phase.</p><p>Today is the last day of the extended Mid-Autumn Festival in China and Beijing has set rules for an unusual end. To ensure the break does