Global soft landing anticipated by OECD

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news the OECD doesn't see New Zealand's OCR being cut until 2025.</p><p>But first, American <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/11/29/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>mortgage application levels</strong></a> were little-changed last week from the prior week and are now running -19% lower than a year ago as the lower base settles in. Mortgage rates dipped again, but this time only slightly.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-third" target="_blank"><strong>second estimate of Q3-2023 US economic activity</strong></a> has brought something of a positive surprise. It expanded +5.2% in this revision, higher than 4.9% in the preliminary estimate, and forecasts of 5% and that marks the strongest growth since Q4-2021. Driving the improvement were both higher investment levels, and better-than-expected company profits (even if they were -1.7% lower than the same quarter a year ago). This is the best the US economy has performed since late 2021 when they had the post-pandemic rebound. Prior to that, you have to go back to the post-GFC rebound. For a non-rebound comparison it is the best since pre-GFC levels. Although it isn't getting any credit, Bidenomics is actually working rather well.</p><p>That expanded activity is actually <a href="https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>shrinking inventories</strong></a>, both retail and wholesale inventories. That is not a sign recession is imminent.</p><p>Singapore's producer prices <a href="https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/publications/economy/smppioct23.ashx" target="_blank"><strong>show</strong></a> an extended era