Global Financial Crisis Coming Soon with David Stryzewski #5790

<p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p dir="ltr">If you know where the Consumer is going, you will know where our economy is headed.</p> <p dir="ltr">US Consumer Confidence declined in April from 104 to 101.</p> <ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">The survey began on April 3 (about three weeks after the bank failures)</p> </li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 68.1 from 74.0.</p> <ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">The Expectations Index has now remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year</p> </li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">This type of reading points to Consumers spending less and saving more over the next year.</p> <ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">One thing particularly concerning was that this Survey showed deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age whose households earned over $50,000. </p> </li> <li style="list-style: none; display: inline;"> <ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">This is the group who tends to spend the most money.</p> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> <p dir="ltr"> </p> <p dir="ltr">IMO, the Consumer is very fearful right now and is starting to brace themselves for the next phase of this Recession… The last leg (Capitulation) is always the worst!</p> <p dir="ltr">Many are expecting a quick down market followed by a recovery over the course of a few quarters. I personally see a much different story developing. </p> <ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">Rate hikes have already done their damage which I believe will lead to a ROLLING Recession that will play out over years of time.</p> </li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">IMO, it would be a major mistake to believe that the Banking Crisis is over… we just finished the first month.</p> <ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">The 2008 Crashes of Lehman and Bear to Fannie and Freddie unfolded over a year's time... we've just finished the first month.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">Ex: Local Regionals are responsible for about 70% of lending