Global bond yields rise

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news UST yields are now near a 16-year high on fears American interest rates will stay higher for longer. And EU bonds yields are moving up too. Higher interest rates will weigh on asset valuations, especially real estate and commercial real estate in particular.</p><p>But first, new US <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20231840.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims</strong></a> came in at 212,000 last week, less than the week before and lower than expected. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, a +10,000 increase from the prior week.</p><p>The US Conference Board <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-aug-2022" target="_blank"><strong>leading economic index</strong></a> is still pointing to an upcoming decline in near-term American economic activity but the weight is very much less now, in the July survey out today.</p><p>And the Philadelphia Fed's <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2023/bos0823.pdf?la=en&hash=AA682C1597BAC69A5871518B3DBC041F" target="_blank"><strong>factory survey</strong></a> in its industrial heartland is pointing to a good pickup in new order levels. It was a sub-index that had been negative for 14 consecutive months, so it is a sharp turnaround. And it wasn't the only improving indicator.</p><p>Across the Pacific, Japan's <a href="https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st/gaiyo2023_07.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>exports fell -0.3% in July</strong></a> from a year earlier, the first drop in more than two years, reflecting the slowing global economy including in key trade partner China.</p><p>But Japanese <a href="https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/stat/juchu/2023/2306juchu.html" target="_blank"><stro