Frothy economic recovery leading to 'the abyss'

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news the global economic recovery seems to be very bad news for the climate.</p><p>But first, in the US both equity and debt issuance has been 'enthusiastic' in early 2021. The value of <a href="https://www.sifma.org/resources/archive/research/statistics/" target="_blank"><strong>debt origination</strong></a> in the US reached a record US$1.45 tln for the month of March 2021, +80% higher than in March 2020 which itself was +30% higher than in March 2019. The debt binge isn't only just a Chinese 'thing'.</p><p>In Canada, <a href="https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/data-research/publications-reports/preliminary-housing-starts-data/2021/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-64695-2021-m03.pdf?rev=e9ebc91b-eaf8-4fea-b579-d7fd618cf277" target="_blank"><strong>housing starts</strong></a> for March were very strong, duplicating the trend high we reported earlier for the US. They were up a massive +22% in March compared with the previous month, easily beating expectations and hitting a new record.</p><p>Japanese <a href="https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2021/2021034e.pdf"><strong>exports posted a +16% gain in March</strong></a>, the first double-digit rise in more than three years. It is another indication that a recovery in global trade is gaining strength. Exports to New Zealand rose +19% while imports from us fell -8.4%. That resulted in a larger trade deficit for New Zealand in this trade.</p><p>There was a further improvement <a href="http://140.115.78.29/cci/cci_1100329.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>reported</strong></a> for Taiwanese consumer confidence in March, although it is not yet back to pre-pandemic levels. In China, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP03CNM665S" target="_blank"><strong>the latest survey</strong></a> is for February done