Fast V-shaped recovery gathers steam

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news of more evidence the pandemic recovery is V-shaped, in fact it may be one of the fastest recoveries from a recession in modern times.</p><p>In the US, the <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/April/NER/NER-April-2021.aspx" target="_blank"><strong>ADP Employment Report</strong></a>, the precursor report to their non-farm payrolls report due on Saturday, revealed a good rise in filled jobs, but not as big a rise as was anticipated. The gains however were broad based, across all firm sizes and across all sectors. Only the tech industry shed jobs, and that slip was small. At this time, analysts are expecting the rise in non-farm payrolls to be almost +1 mln for April (+978,000). This ADP report showed a gain of +742,000.</p><p>One reason there might be an undershoot is that todays release of the widely-watched <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/april/" target="_blank"><strong>ISM services PMI</strong></a> came in under expectations, even if the expansion it was reporting was strong. But the internationally-benchmarked <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/d3878b2bf932488f9c9003dee977e13f" target="_blank"><strong>Markit services PMI</strong></a> reported a stronger expansion. Both surveys featured strong rises in new orders, and strong inflationary pressures.</p><p>Singapore's <a href="https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/mrsmar2021.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>retail trade</strong></a> is showing a good recovery.</p><p>In the UK, a regulator <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe-mortgages/bank-of-england-eyes-minimum-risk-rule-for-banks-home-loans-idUSKBN2CM0RF" target="_blank"><strong>said</strong></a> there is a strong prudential case for some