Economic prospects dim further, but are still positive

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news that away from the headline political shifts, the global economic signals seem to be dimming further.</p><p>In the week ahead, the most important American economic releases include retail sales, producer prices, and housing data. Investors will be also keeping an eye on earnings reports from big retailers and the state of the crypto market after the weekend FTX bankruptcy. All this comes after their mid-term election results become clearer, and with a surprising good outcome for the incumbent President.</p><p>Elsewhere, in the spotlight will be inflation rates from Japan, India, UK and Canada. Also, we will get more German economic sentiment data, Q3 GDP growth rates from Japan, and industrial production, retail sales, and fixed investment data from China. And don't forget our own REINZ data for October will be released tomorrow.</p><p>But first in the US, the widely-watched <a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/" target="_blank"><strong>University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey</strong></a> fell in November to its lowest level since July and by slightly more than expected. The current economic conditions index sank sharply and the expectations gauge tumbled too. Meanwhile, inflation expectations increased marginally for both the year ahead and the next 5 years. Of course, since this survey there have been elections and a moderating of a key inflation measure which have both energised financial market optimism.</p><p>That same survey reports about four in five consumers now describe buying conditions for homes as bad, a record in data going back to 1978. In fact, <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank"><strong>mortgage rate rises</strong></a> show no sign of slowing.</p><p>The American Federal Budget repair continues. In October, the first month o