Economic data quite mixed

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news a sense of dread you might get looking at financial markets from the outside isn't being reflected in the activity of those markets.</p><p>But first the worrying news. We should note that American benchmark mortgage interest rates topped 7.5% last week for the first time since November 2000. 8% rates seem in sight. So it will be no surprise to learn that <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/10/04/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>mortgage applications were weak</strong></a> there last week, down a sharp -6% from the prior week, and down -22% from the same week a year ago.</p><p>Holding that weaker theme, and after rising +180,000 in August, the pre-cursor <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/March/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-March2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>ADP Employment Report</strong></a> of private payrolls was expected to rise +153,000 in September. But it rose just +89,000 which is a negative signal ahead of Saturday's US non-farm payrolls report. Weakness was shown in factory jobs, employment in the South, and by large firms. Analysts are expected the non-farm, payrolls to grow a modest +170,000 but there seems to be downside risks. At least the US Fed will like to see an easing. And equity and bond markets responded in that way with stocks up and benchmark bond yields easing back.</p><p>But not every indicator out today is negative. The closely-watch <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/september/" target="_blank"><strong>ISM services PMI</strong></a> shows no such weakness for September. Yes it eased slightly, but it is just off its six month high and expanding a