Climate losses come as economies slow

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news New Zealand is claiming free trade wins in a deal with the EU.</p><p>But first, American <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20221427.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims</strong></a> inched higher last week although the rise was less than analysts had expected. There are now 1.3 mln American on these benefits now, also a small rise. We are clearly past the bottom, past the all-time low.</p><p><a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2022" target="_blank"><strong>Their PCE measure of inflation</strong></a> dipped a little in May from April, a pullback that wasn't expected. Core PCE is now running at 4.7%, the full PCE at 6.3%. The personal spending rise was much more modest in May that expected (up +0.2%) and may point to a weak Q2 GDP growth result, while the personal income gain was at +0.5% as expected.</p><p>The widely watched <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/14uV20RTPIxYknhTsLjJXMaPi-OxVA1Nl/view" target="_blank"><strong>Chicago PMI</strong></a> fell back to the levels of the last few months, but the main concern in this report was the sharpish retreat in new order level growth. A<br />quarter of firms saw fewer new orders received in June.</p><p>Japanese <a href="https://www.meti.go.jp/statistics/tyo/iip/result-1.html" target="_blank"><strong>industrial production slumped</strong></a> in May, the second straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2020. However, it probably recovered in June. But from a year ago it will still be lower.</p><p>China was expecting its <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202206/t20220630_1858686.html" target="_blank"><strong>factory PMI</strong></a> to expand in June after contracting in the prior three months - and it did. But only