China stumbles into broad frustrations

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news of rising frustrations in China.</p><p>But first, we get the May American non-farm payrolls report tomorrow and analysts expect it to rise by +325,000 jobs. But today, the precursor <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/May/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-May2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>ADP Employment Report</strong></a> only signalled +128,000 new jobs, and if the non-far, payrolls report comes in like that, it will be statistically disappointing.</p><p>The latest <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/may-2022-challenger-report-job-cuts-fall-overall-but-explode-in-tech-fintech-construction/" target="_blank"><strong>job cuts report</strong></a> delivered historically low levels. But for technology, fintech, construction, and the car industries, these all reported jumps in layoffs.</p><p>New <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20221102.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>US jobless claims</strong></a> came in at 182,000 and less than expected. There are now 1.26 mln people on these programs, yet another record low.</p><p>April <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>factory orders rose</strong></a>, but not by as much as was anticipated. But they were up almost +13% from the same month a year ago.</p><p>US central bank officials were out speaking overnight, and all had the message that steep +50 bps policy rate hikes might be needed for longer than originally indicated, perhaps through to September.</p><p>And separately but related, an overnight New York <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/events/markets/2022/0601-2022" target="_blank"><strong>meeting</strong></a> observed that digital money, a curiosity just a few years ago, is em