Calm data encourages equities to rise

<p>a moderation vibe is settling over the global economy, heralding a lackluster period ahead.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20230611.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims rose</strong></a> last week by +224,000 which was higher than expected and perhaps the start of the long-awaited labour market slowdown. There are now 1.9 mln people on these programs which is still low however, an insured unemployment rate of 1.3%. (NZ Jobseeker-to-labour force rate is 3.4%.)</p><p>In its final estimate for Q4-2022 GDP, the US <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2022-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and" target="_blank"><strong>reported</strong></a> that their economy expanded an annualised +2.6%, slightly less than initial estimates of a +2.7% rise. Consumer spending rose +1% and below the +1.4% in the second estimate, as spending on services advanced much less than initially assumed.</p><p>The Boston Fed President <a href="https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/speeches/2023/remarks-on-the-outlook-monetary-policy-and-supporting-a-vibrant-economy.aspx" target="_blank"><strong>says</strong></a> she expects only one more +25 bps rate hike from the Fed in this cycle. In her view, inflation will continue to moderate, and there won't be a hard landing.</p><p>In Germany, their inflation rate is pulling back now too and as expected. It <a href="https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2023/03/PD23_127_611.html" target="_blank"><strong>eased further to 7.4%</strong></a> from a year ago in March, down from 8.7% in the previous two months. Analysts were expecting a March rate of 7.3%. The actual rate was its lowest since August 2022. It peaked at 8.8% in October 2022. There is a downside however, the February to March increase ran at an annualisted rate just below +10%.</p><p>EU <a href="https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-03/bcs_2023_03_en.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>sentiment eased</strong></a> m