Beijing takes the soft options

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news there is little evidence the global economy is on the rise. Bond markets don't think so.</p><p>But first, last week there was a rare <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/11/08/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>rise in American mortgage applications</strong></a>, now off a lower base however, but also helped by sharply lower mortgage interest rates. Their benchmark 30 year fixed rate fell to 7.61% plus points, a retreat from 7.86% and the largest fall since July 2022. Of course, they are following the US Treasury rates lower.</p><p>American <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm" target="_blank"><strong>consumer credit levels</strong></a> rose in September from August, but really only back to where they were in July. But they are up +9.0% in a year.</p><p>American <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/25/beef-prices-are-at-record-highs-and-your-steak-is-becoming-pricier.html" target="_blank"><strong>beef prices are rising</strong></a>, and sharply, as drought threatens cattle herds. Although this is not strictly 'news' - the trend has been around for a year - the drought slaughter in the southwest is ending and the overall US herd is much smaller now. Imports will be benefiting significantly now.</p><p>Canadian <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231108/dq231108a-eng.htm?HPA=1" target="_blank"><strong>building consents</strong></a> recorded a very sharp -6.5% fall in September, much more than expected. Much of that was a base effect of unusually large non-residential projects being approved a year ago. But the value of residential consents rose +4.3% from August and were +2.3% higher than a year ago. The residential consent levels are