Aussies glimpse rare Budget surplus

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news about Australia's 'cost of living' Budget.</p><p>But first, in the US last week's <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/economy/economic-optimism-index-dives-as-u-s-recession-clouds-gather/" target="_blank"><strong>retail data</strong></a> wasn't flash again, coming in with a gain well below the inflation level. The expanded payrolls don't seem to be helping this sector.</p><p>And a couple of second-tier American confidence surveys, for <a href="https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/labor-quality-becomes-top-small-business-problem-followed-by-inflation/" target="_blank"><strong>SME business</strong></a> and <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/economy/economic-optimism-index-dives-as-u-s-recession-clouds-gather/" target="_blank"><strong>investors</strong></a>, were both negative. Both think a recession is due.</p><p>Maybe <a href="https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2023-05-09-Ryanair-Places-Its-Biggest-Boeing-Order-for-up-to-300-737-MAX-Jets" target="_blank"><strong>a big order</strong></a> received by Boeing overnight from a European airline will help.</p><p>They need to get their debt ceiling issue behind them because it is a growing drag on sentiment. But that will be tough because hard-line Republicans have weaponised the issue.</p><p>And the US Fed's <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20230508.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Financial Stability Report</strong></a> released late yesterday has them watching office building loans and other commercial real estate borrowing as the next big economic threat.</p><p>In China, <a href="http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302275/5013558/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>exports rose strongly</strong></a> for a second straight month i