Argentina wrestles with stark choice

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news some eyes are on the cliff-hanger election is Argentina. It is turning out to be very close.</p><p>But first, in the week ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed meeting minutes followed by American durable goods orders, manufacturing PMIs, and some housing market data. We will also get flash MPI manufacturing and services PMIs for Australia, the EU, the UK, and Japan. Upcoming are policy interest rate decisions for Turkey, and Sweden. And CPI inflation rates will be released Canada, and Japan.</p><p>However, first up over the weekend, China released its October <a href="http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/xwfb/xwsjfzr/202311/20231103454591.shtml" target="_blank"><strong>foreign direct investment</strong></a> data that was only +¥106.5 bln (+$24.5 bln), continuing the run of weak inflows. In fact these are now -9.4% below year-ago levels.</p><p>In the US, <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>housing starts</strong></a> rose by +1.9% in October from September, above market expectations as limited supply in the resale market has boosted new construction. Also, residential building consents, a forward-looking indicator of future construction, moved +1.1% higher. However, these might be recent trend increases but both are still lower than year-ago levels. And completions are now running higher than new housing starts.</p><p>A new Boston Fed research paper <a target="_blank"><strong>released</strong></a> over the weekend examined how much labour market surveys undercount gig-workers. It could be by a lot, and answer the question about why the US participation rate seems so low. US employment is already at a record high. It may well be very much higher than those official levels, and that has monetary policy implication