Air cargo demand sags as global growth impetus wanes

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news that with the oil price up over US$120/bbl and the benchmark UST 10yr yield above 3%, the risks that global stagflation poses have risen sharply.</p><p>But first, the <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/06/08/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey" target="_blank"><strong>fall away in US mortgage applications</strong></a> picked up speed again last week - and are now at more than a 20 year low - as did the rise in their mortgage interest rates.</p><p>And <a href="https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>American wholesale inventories rose</strong></a> +21% in April from a year ago, but that rise was less than in March. Part of that rise includes inflation of course. But as a ratio to sales, the new levels are still relatively low in an historical context. As we noted yesterday however, some large retailers are feeling high-inventory pain.</p><p>There was another well supported <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/R_20220608_2.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>US Treasury bond auction</strong></a> earlier today, this one for the 10 year benchmark bond. The median yield rise to 2.95%, up from 2.85% at the <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/R_20220511_2.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>previous equivalent event</strong></a> a month ago.</p><p>In China, parts of Shanghai are <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2022-06-08/shanghai-heightens-covid-restrictions-after-a-spike-in-cases-sparks-concern-101896545.html" target="_blank"><strong>back in strict lockdown</strong></a> as pandemic cases are recorded.</p><p><a href="https://www.mof.gov.tw/singlehtml/384fb3077bb349ea973e7fc6f13b6974?cntId=5e4aa10d4bdc45aba221