#43 What is the likelihood of Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?

<p>Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/</p> <p>Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/</p> <p><br></p> <p>This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Contents</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>00:43 Log scale</p> <p>02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared)</p> <p>05:57 1-sigma percentile moves</p> <p>06:30 2-sigma percentile moves</p> <p>08:30 3-sigma percentile moves</p> <p>10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji&#39;s bet by mid-June</p> <p>15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji&#39;s trendline</p> <p>18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared)</p> <p>22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price?</p> <p><br></p> <p>Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan&#39;s $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target?</p> <p><br></p> <p>All-time trend coefficients:</p> <p>y = a * x ^ b</p> <p>y = y-intercept * x ^ slope</p> <p>y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588%</p> <p><br></p> <p>Year end 2011 trend coefficients:</p> <p>y = a * x ^ b</p> <p>y = y-intercept * x ^ slope</p> <p>y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950%</p> <p><br></p> <p>https://porkopolis.io</p> <p>https://twitter.com/crypto_voices</p> <p><br></p> <p>Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.</p>